Hi everyone, Newbie here still doing alot of reading and videos on Forex and daytrading in general. I was wondering, which techniques do you guys recommend for a beginner? The ones that seem simplest to me are the ABCD pattern, as well as the "crossing" of SMA's. I noticed some people use the 10 SMA/20 SMA, and some use 9 SMA/18 SMA.
I'm Tired of Revisionist History In Chart Analysis
I'm new to the Forex world, and trading in general. So I've been studying a ton of Price Action strategies, web sites, analysis, commentary, recommendations, strategies, and more. And it drives me nuts how the charts and pictures only seem to point out whatever the goal of the article wants to point out. It's like every single PA site goes back and finds the perfect chart for their explanation. For example: 1) The strategy article points out a SR line, and it's like CONCRETE. It's like a Titanium-laced guarantee of a reversal bounce that is ALWAYS reflected in the "lesson". Yet, in the real charts I've been practicing with, these lines are often pierced like water. 2) Fibonacci levels. The article will draw out 3 or 4 Fibonacci lines, and the price will go up to the 4th one, and they will say something like "look at the strong resistance at the 4th line, here's where you sell", and I'm thinking to myself "what about the 1st line, 2nd line, 3rd line"? OK, fine, maybe those lines are easy to pass. Then I'll see another chart where the author says "the price hit the 2nd line and decided it couldn't go further" as if the 2nd line was now an impassable barrier. It's like the articles just make up reasons to explain why a price went from one line to another. There are enough Fibonacci levels to support almost any "theory". 3) Psychological levels? So far, I've seen 1.20000000 act like 3.14159. Seriously? Do the authors find THE CHART that demonstrates their one point? 4) Bollinger Bands. The descriptions of Bollinger Band strategies are the worst. The article will be like "look how the price skirted the bottom band and came out right HERE". The author could point out HERE anywhere in the chart, and they come up with a "reason" it came out of the Bollinger Band range. And every time it's a different reason because that's what was needed to explain the particular chart. Now, I'm not naive. I know the PA strategies work when interpretted with the right confluence, and that no single strategy can be taken out of context and acted on in the absence of other factors. But if I had a nickle for every pinbar that went the opposite way it was supposed to, I wouldn't be here. So then I look at some "trading opportunity" lists on a site like Oanda. I figure lets apply these strategies to LIVE charts. Oanda's stats page show like 65% of the trade opporunities they list succeeding. They show pinbars, channels, ABCD formations, SR lines. I figure their experts have more experience than me, so they must know what they are doing. So I religiously do what their opportunities suggest on a demo account, and lo and behold, I don't win 65%. Are they making their stats up? It's just a little frustrating to read about all these strategies and in live charts see them work far less than any strategy article (or Oanda expert) professes. [/rantover]
Hey all, I know I said I'd be back for last week but I realized that I'd just be forcing myself to post premature ideas that are lower in 'quality' - especially since my ideas are usually long-term, so that didn't really sit well with me. Recap from last week 1) USDCAD: Oh boy, if I could hear the 'X' sound from America's Got Talent on cue, I would need it right about now. Though the USD has been under-performing lately, the CAD took that sentiment and dialed it up to 10 resulting in a pair that has broken through the daily local maximum and looking towards 1.40. Shit happens right? Graph 2) EURCAD: Unlike it's older brother that is still respecting the structure (EURUSD), the strength of the EUR following the first round of the French elections combined with CAD's weakness has resulted in a massive jump that has all but invalidated the ABCD pattern. However, if you managed to take the aggressive entry I posted on the idea, you would have gotten all 600 pips on the C-D leg completion which is a beautiful result for a 9 day trade. Graph New Setups 1) GBPUSD: What we can see here is a very clear channel that the pair has been trading in since the Brexit vote almost one year ago. From this, we can use fibonacci retracements to outline very clear and distinct levels that the price is using to bounce off of. As of today, the price seems to be entering a rather important decision point where it may attempt to break through the 0.618 level - indicating a rather significant bullish run for the pair. The alternative is that it may attempt to test the 0.5 level which is the border between the two adjacent channels, and from here it can either bounce upwards to test the 0.618 level again or it can break through it downwards indicating that the pair will likely stay in this lower channel. The GBP has been rallying as of late but the USD has also been gaining some traction. I would predict that although the USD has shown signs of life, it may be a short lived run compared to the GBP. So with regards to this structure, I would say that the price is headed back down to the 0.5 level to test it before rallying up and over the 0.618 level. The RSI indicates that the pair is very oversold so it seems to support this prediction of a brief bearish trend followed by an OVERALL bullish trend . I stress that word because we can always expect some consolidation and brief reversals off the major S&R levels outlined here. Assuming the price breaks through the 0.618 level, we'll be analyzing the upper channel and using its fibonacci retracements (marked in blue) to determine the possible targets. Upper play Entry: 1.29656 TP: 1.30953, 1.32023, 1.33320 SL: 1.29042 -- Lower Play Entry: 1.28618 TP: 1.27613 SL: 1.28910 Graph 2) EURCHF: I've never traded this pair, but I drew out the formation of the falling wedge quite a while ago and knew that the Euro's recent massive surge must have broken through it. This is a very interesting situation as it means that the price is trying to rally back to its recent maximum at 1.19 - and possibly even beyond that. The ones that have been following my ideas in the past will have noticed that I avoid trading the news so it wasn't a realistic idea to assume that the price would have broken through the way it did (we'd be gambling if we tried to trade the elections). However now that it has, I can see it hitting these 3 strong daily S&R levels with a bit of consolidation in between. The reason why this entry is a little higher than usual is because we can see a clear area of consolidation (marked by the blue rectangle ) where the price may experience a similar fate. If that area is cleared, then we can reasonably expect the aforementioned targets to be hit with ease. Setup Entry: 1.09031 SL: 1.08015 TP: 1.09749, 1.11050, 1.12054 Graph I really do appreciate all the kind words and support from a lot of people on the sub and I'm going to try and do these posts as much as I can, but sometimes I'm just waiting for pairs to show their hand so I can make a reasonable prediction. I feel like I've been on point more often than not, and forcing the ideas when they're not ready will almost certainly result in a dip in quality. That said, there are a lot of my older long-term ideas that are currently panning out (due to their nature) and unless you're going through my posts, some of you won't even get to see them so here are some of the older posts: 20th - 24th March 27th - 31st March 2nd - 7th April 17th-21st April 24th - 28th April I wish it was, but this isn't the gospel so please take the necessary precautions when trading Have a good week and good luck!
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